Geopolitical Changes and Their Impact on Energy Flows Through the Bab al-Mandab Strait

(A Study in Economic Geography)

Abstract

This research examines the geopolitical and economic importance of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait as one of the world's most vital maritime passages for energy transport, focusing on the analysis of oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) flows during the period 2018–2023. The findings demonstrated that the Strait represents a strategic chokepoint connecting the Arabian Gulf and Africa to Asia and Europe via the Suez Canal, with approximately 8.8 million barrels of oil per day and nearly 10% of global seaborne oil trade passing through it. It was also found that oil flows are more sensitive to economic and geopolitical changes, showing a decline during the COVID-19 pandemic before rising sharply after the Russia-Ukraine War. LNG flows, however, exhibited relative stability, with a gradual increase until 2022, followed by a slight decrease due to security tensions in the Red Sea. The study concluded that global energy security is contingent upon the stability of the Strait. It recommended the necessity of enhancing regional and international cooperation to secure maritime navigation, developing strategic alternatives for energy transport, and utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for monitoring and analyzing trade movements.